The indicator that heralds impending US recessions is starting to flash -- but one huge factor is different this time

AP The US yield curve is flattening, driven by ongoing rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve. The current spread between US two- and 10-year bond yields is around 40 basis points, and could turn negative in the not-too-distant future. When this has occurred in the past, it’s almost always signaled that a recession will soon follow. Westpac has evaluated whether the signals from US yield curve have been altered by QE from major central banks. The US yield curve is flattening, driven by ongoing...